Most Americans give a thumbs down to President Joe Biden’s pardon of his son, with few agreeing that Hunter Biden’s case was treated more harshly because of who he is. At the same time, the Monmouth University Poll finds that public opinion is similarly negative about President-elect Donald Trump’s pardons of close associates in his first term as well as the potential pardons of Jan. 6 rioters in his second. Still, most Americans feel the Biden pardon undermines Democrats’ credibility when criticizing Trump for similar actions.
Barely 1 in 3 Americans (32%) approve of Biden’s decision to pardon his son Hunter, while 58% disapprove. While most Democrats (65%) stand by the president’s move, few independents (27%) and Republicans (12%) look favorably on the action. The president’s stated rationale for the pardon is that the younger Biden was treated differently by the justice system. However, just 35% of the American public says he was treated more harshly because of who he is while 47% say his case was treated the same as similar cases.
“This is one of Biden’s final acts as president. Whatever the motivation, it certainly isn’t going to help his legacy,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute.
Opinion of Biden’s job performance as president – 35% approve and 60% disapprove – is nearly identical to his prior low mark (34% approve and 61% disapprove in December 2023). Moreover, Biden’s current job rating is practically a mirror image of where he started his term in January 2021 when a majority of 54% approved of his performance and just 30% disapproved. While Biden maintains a 79% approval rating among his fellow Democrats, he only musters a 26% positive rating among independents and 7% among Republicans.
The poll finds that public displeasure with use of the pardon power for family members is not limited to the incumbent president. Just 29% approve of pardons issued by Trump during his first term for people close to him, including his daughter’s father-in-law. A majority (56%) disapprove of these pardons, although the partisan script is flipped from opinion about the Biden pardon. While 74% of Democrats and 58% of independents disapprove of Trump’s first-term pardons of close associates, just 32% of Republicans agree. Moreover, 52% of all Americans disapprove of Trump nominating people he pardoned to high-level government positions in his new administration. Just 14% approve of such appointments and 31% say this does not matter to them. [Note: Trump has nominated Charles Kushner, his daughter’s father-in-law whom he pardoned, as Ambassador to France, but this was not specifically mentioned in the poll question.]
Taken together, 33% of the American public disapproves both of Biden’s pardon of his son and Trump’s pardons of his close associates. Another 25% disapprove only of Biden’s pardon and 22% disapprove only of Trump’s pardons. At the other end of the spectrum, 11% of Americans approve of both presidents’ pardons. Among independents, 42% disapprove of both sets of pardons. They are joined in this view by 29% of Republicans and 21% of Democrats. A majority of Republicans (52%) disapprove only of Biden’s pardon and a similar number of Democrats (54%) disapprove only of Trump’s pardons.
Looking ahead, most Americans (61%) would disapprove of Trump pardoning people who were convicted of attacking the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021. Just 34% would approve of this move. Interestingly, Republicans show more support for Trump pardoning Jan. 6 rioters (64%) than say they approve of his first-term pardons for close associates (44%).
“If Trump follows through on pardoning some of the Jan. 6 rioters, he will please his base and not much else. However, that may be all he is concerned about since Biden’s move to protect his own son has made it harder for Democrats to claim the moral high ground,” said Murray.
A majority of Americans (57%) say Biden’s pardon of his son makes it harder for Democrats to criticize similar actions by Trump. Just 37% say it has no effect on Democrats’ credibility in this area. Among members of the public who identify as a Democrat, 37% say Biden’s action undermines their party’s credibility while 52% say it has no effect.
The Monmouth University Poll was conducted by telephone and online from December 5 to 10, 2024 with 1,006 adults in the United States. The question results in this release have a margin of error of +/- 3.9 percentage points for the full sample. The poll was conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute in West Long Branch, NJ.
QUESTIONS AND RESULTS
(* Some columns may not add to 100% due to rounding.)
[Q1-8 held for future release.]
- Do you approve or disapprove of the job Joe Biden is doing as president?
| Trend: | Dec. 2024 |
June 2024 |
April 2024 |
Feb. 2024 |
Dec. 2023 |
Sept. 2023 |
July 2023 |
May 2023 |
March 2023 |
Jan. 2023 |
| Approve | 35% | 38% | 42% | 38% | 34% | 38% | 44% | 41% | 41% | 43% |
| Disapprove | 60% | 58% | 55% | 58% | 61% | 55% | 52% | 53% | 51% | 48% |
| (VOL) No opinion | 5% | 4% | 3% | 5% | 5% | 7% | 4% | 6% | 8% | 9% |
| (n) | (1,006) | (1,106) | (808) | (902) | (803) | (814) | (910) | (981) | (805) | (805) |
| Trend: Continued |
Dec. 2022 |
Oct. 2022 |
Sept. 2022 |
Aug. 2022 |
June 2022 |
May 2022 |
March 2022 |
Jan. 2022 |
Dec. 2021 |
Nov. 2021 |
Sept. 2021 |
July 2021 |
June 2021 |
April 2021 |
March 2021 |
Jan. 2021 |
| Approve | 42% | 40% | 38% | 38% | 36% | 38% | 39% | 39% | 40% | 42% | 46% | 48% | 48% | 54% | 51% | 54% |
| Disapprove | 50% | 53% | 54% | 56% | 58% | 57% | 54% | 54% | 50% | 50% | 46% | 44% | 43% | 41% | 42% | 30% |
| (VOL) No opinion | 8% | 7% | 8% | 7% | 6% | 5% | 7% | 7% | 11% | 9% | 8% | 8% | 9% | 5% | 8% | 16% |
| (n) | (805) | (808) | (806) | (808) | (978) | (807) | (809) | (794) | (808) | (811) | (802) | (804) | (810) | (800) | (802) | (809) |
[Q10-17 held for future release.]
- Have you heard that President Biden recently issued a pardon for his son Hunter, or have you not heard anything about this until now?
| Dec. 2024 |
|
| Yes, have heard | 89% |
| No, have not heard | 11% |
| (n) | (1,006) |
- Do you approve or disapprove of Biden’s pardon? [Do you approve/disapprove strongly or just somewhat?]
| Dec. 2024 |
|
| Strongly approve | 17% |
| Somewhat approve | 15% |
| Somewhat disapprove | 21% |
| Strongly disapprove | 37% |
| (VOL) Don’t know | 9% |
| (n) | (1,006) |
- Do you think Hunter Biden’s criminal case was treated the same as similar cases or was he treated more harshly because of who he is?
| Dec. 2024 |
|
| Same as similar cases | 47% |
| More harshly | 35% |
| (VOL) Don’t know | 18% |
| (n) | (1,006) |
- In your view, does President Biden’s pardon of his son make it harder for Democrats to criticize similar actions by incoming President Trump, or does it have no effect on their own credibility when criticizing Trump?
| Dec. 2024 |
|
| Makes it harder | 57% |
| Has no effect | 37% |
| (VOL) Don’t know | 6% |
| (n) | (1,006) |
- During his first term in office, President Trump pardoned a number of people close to him, including his daughter’s father-in-law. Thinking back, do you generally approve or disapprove of those pardons?
| Dec. 2024 |
|
| Approve | 29% |
| Disapprove | 56% |
| (VOL) Don’t know | 15% |
| (n) | (1,006) |
- Do you approve or disapprove of Trump nominating people he pardoned to high-level government positions in his new administration, or doesn’t this matter to you?
| Dec. 2024 |
|
| Approve | 14% |
| Disapprove | 52% |
| Does not matter | 31% |
| (VOL) Don’t know | 3% |
| (n) | (1,006) |
- Would you approve or disapprove of Trump pardoning people who were convicted of attacking the U.S. Capitol on January 6, 2021?
| Dec. 2024 |
|
| Approve | 34% |
| Disapprove | 61% |
| (VOL) Don’t know | 5% |
| (n) | (1,006) |
[Q25-26 held for future release.]
METHODOLOGY
The Monmouth University Poll was sponsored and conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute from December 5 to 10, 2024 with a probability-based national random sample of 1,006 adults age 18 and older. Interviews were conducted in English, and included 208 live landline telephone interviews, 540 live cell phone interviews, and 258 online surveys via a cell phone text invitation. Telephone numbers were selected through a mix of random digit dialing and list-based sampling. Landline respondents were selected with a modified Troldahl-Carter youngest adult household screen. Interviewing services were provided by Braun Research, with sample obtained from Dynata (RDD, n=637), Aristotle (list, n=115) and a panel of prior Monmouth poll participants (n=254). Monmouth is responsible for all aspects of the survey design, data weighting and analysis. The full sample is weighted for region, age, education, gender and race based on US Census information (ACS 2022 one-year survey). For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the error attributable to sampling has a maximum margin of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points adjusted for sample design effects (1.63). Sampling error can be larger for sub-groups (see table below). In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls.
Demographics (weighted)
Party (self-reported): 27% Republican, 47% Independent, 26% Democrat
Sex: 49% men, 50% women, 1% other
Age: 29% 18-34, 33% 35-54, 38% 55+
Race: 62% White, 11% Black, 17% Hispanic, 10% Asian/other
Education: 38% high school or less, 29% some college, 18% 4 year degree, 15% graduate degree
| MARGIN OF ERROR | |||
| unweighted sample | moe (+/-) |
||
| TOTAL | 1,006 | 3.9% | |
| REGISTERED VOTER | Yes | 946 | 4.1% |
| No | 60 | 16.2% | |
| SELF-REPORTED PARTY ID | Republican | 252 | 7.9% |
| Independent | 453 | 5.9% | |
| Democrat | 296 | 7.3% | |
| IDEOLOGY | Liberal | 254 | 7.9% |
| Moderate | 387 | 6.4% | |
| Conservative | 338 | 6.8% | |
| GENDER | Male | 475 | 5.7% |
| Female | 515 | 5.5% | |
| AGE | 18-34 | 201 | 8.8% |
| 35-54 | 327 | 6.9% | |
| 55+ | 472 | 5.8% | |
| CHILDREN IN HOME | Yes | 219 | 8.5% |
| No | 778 | 4.5% | |
| RACE | White, non-Hispanic | 707 | 4.7% |
| Other | 276 | 7.5% | |
| COLLEGE GRADUATE | No degree | 459 | 5.8% |
| 4 year degree | 542 | 5.4% | |
| WHITE COLLEGE | White, no degree | 330 | 6.9% |
| White, 4 year degree | 374 | 6.5% | |
| INCOME | <$50K | 239 | 8.1% |
| $50 to <$100K | 296 | 7.3% | |
| $100K+ | 412 | 6.2% | |
Crosstabs may be found in the PDF file on the report webpage: https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_US_121124/
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A recent opinion poll conducted by Monmouth National has revealed that there is low approval among the public for a potential pardon for Hunter Biden, the son of President Joe Biden. The poll, which surveyed a diverse group of Americans, found that only 25% of respondents supported the idea of pardoning Hunter Biden, while 65% were against it.
The low approval rating for a potential Hunter Biden pardon comes as no surprise, given the controversies surrounding his business dealings and alleged conflicts of interest during his father’s time as Vice President. Hunter Biden has faced scrutiny for his involvement with Ukrainian energy company Burisma Holdings, as well as his business dealings in China.
Many Americans believe that granting a pardon to Hunter Biden would be seen as a form of nepotism and favoritism, especially considering his family ties to the President. Critics argue that pardoning Hunter Biden would undermine the rule of law and send the wrong message about accountability for those in positions of power.
On the other hand, some supporters of a potential pardon argue that Hunter Biden has been unfairly targeted by political opponents and that he deserves a second chance. They believe that pardoning him would help to put an end to the ongoing investigations and controversies surrounding his business dealings.
Overall, the Monmouth National poll suggests that there is little public appetite for a potential pardon for Hunter Biden. The majority of Americans appear to be skeptical of the idea, viewing it as a politically motivated move that would only serve to further divide the country. As the debate over a potential pardon continues, it remains to be seen how the Biden administration will address this controversial issue.
