Stories abound about New Jersey becoming a “swing state.”
Not surprisingly, they are being fueled by Republican leaders, but have also been picked up by various media outlets. A quick check shows that the Philly Inquirer, the Star Ledger and Politico all are running stories about this apparent phenomena.
They’re wrong.
A look at the numbers shows Democrats had a problem, but that does not translate into “swing state” status.
Some votes are still being counted, but as of Friday afternoon, Donald Trump received about 1.9 million votes in New Jersey on Tuesday.
How many did he get in 2020? About 1.9 million.
That is the point. This election did not show any surge in the number of people supporting Trump – his total number was about the same this year as it was in 2020.
How about the Dems?
Well, Joe Biden got about 2.6 million votes in 2020. Meanwhile, Kamala Harris got about only 2.1 million this year.
That is a staggering stat.
Trump’s support was the same, but the Democratic support in New Jersey dropped off by 500,000.
Where did they go? Maybe nowhere near a voting booth. If they voted for Trump, his number would have increased.
The logical point is that while Dems had an obvious problem with turnout, there was no great migration to the Republican candidate – something necessary to truly put New Jersey in the swing state column.
It is also noteworthy to consider that Andy Kim won his Senate seat fairly comfortably and that Dems held all nine of their House seats.
Looking nationally, Trump won in Arizona, Nevada, Michigan and Wisconsin. But in all those states, Democratic Senate candidates won, or are leading.
It will take some study and reflection to find out why, but the numbers suggest enthusiasm for Harris was the problem. That’s on the Dems and has nothing to do with any increased love of Trump.
Another point must be made.
Every election is an entity unto itself. They are not the same. The candidates running, the offices being sought and the interest of voters changes from year to year.
In 2021, Jack Ciattarelli came within 4 points of beating Phil Murphy.
Did anyone suggest that made New Jersey a swing state? Those who did were soon proven wrong.
Democrats had a very good midterm in 2022 and in 2023, Dems picked up six seats in the state Legislature.
For reasons so far unclear, Harris did not inspire Democratic voters this year.
As with the 2021 campaign Murphy almost lost, the Dems’ 2024 problem may very be limited to 2024.
We need a few more elections – or at least the 2025 gubernatorial race – before proclaiming still-blue New Jersey as a “swing state.”
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New Jersey has long been considered a solidly blue state in national elections, consistently voting for Democratic candidates in presidential races. However, recent political developments have raised questions about whether New Jersey could potentially become a swing state in the future.
One of the key factors that has led to this speculation is the changing demographics of New Jersey. The state has seen an influx of younger, more diverse residents in recent years, particularly in urban areas like Jersey City and Newark. These demographic shifts have the potential to alter the political landscape of the state, as younger and more diverse voters tend to lean more towards the Democratic party.
Additionally, New Jersey has a history of electing Republican governors, such as Chris Christie and Tom Kean, which suggests that the state’s political leanings may not be as solidly blue as previously thought. In fact, in the 2021 gubernatorial race, Republican candidate Jack Ciattarelli came within a few percentage points of unseating Democratic incumbent Phil Murphy, indicating that there is a significant portion of the population that is open to voting for Republican candidates.
Furthermore, the political climate in New Jersey has become increasingly polarized in recent years, with issues such as property taxes, gun control, and education funding dividing residents along party lines. This polarization could potentially create an opening for a Republican candidate to make inroads in the state and appeal to disaffected voters.
Despite these factors, it is important to note that New Jersey is still considered a solidly blue state by most political analysts. The state has not voted for a Republican presidential candidate since George H.W. Bush in 1988, and Democrats currently hold a significant advantage in voter registration numbers.
Overall, while there are signs that New Jersey’s political landscape may be shifting, it is still too early to consider the state a true swing state. However, as demographics change and political polarization increases, it will be interesting to see how New Jersey’s political identity evolves in the coming years.