Conventional wisdom is often the coin of the realm in New Jersey politics. This morning, regarding the forthcoming November US Senate election, the conventional wisdom is that the Democratic candidate, Congressman Andy Kim is certain to score a lopsided victory over Republican candidate Curtis Bashaw.
In this case, the conventional wisdom is not very wise. There are two demographic factors, two management factors, and the “Bob Menendez” factor that taken together provide a most plausible pathway for Curtis Bashaw to become the first Republican to win a New Jersey US Senate general election victory since the reelection of Clifford Case in 1972.
The first demographic factor is women voters. Curtis Bashaw is pro-choice on abortion and a model of inclusiveness and tolerance – a gay man in a stable marriage to a gay husband. For women voters, inclusiveness is critical. He is a certainty to receive the votes of more Democratic and Independent women than any other Republican candidate since Tom Kean’s gubernatorial reelection in 1985.
The second demographic is the Jewish vote, which in a statewide New Jersey election can be as high as ten percent. In a word, Kim’s record of support on Israel is terrible. As I have written in previous columns, Andy Kim’s record of appeasement of and moral equivalence between Israel and its enemies augurs ill for the future of the American-Israel alliance. And his flip-flops on the war with Hamas, Israel’s genocidal enemy, has made him most untrustworthy to New Jersey Jews. Defections of Democratic Jewish voters to outspokenly pro-Israel Bashaw will be major.
Bashaw has a major opportunity to make massive gains among women and Jewish voters. The two following campaign factors increase the possibility of his achieving these objectives.
The first campaign factor is Kim’s bitter antagonism of Democratic county chairs, due to his efforts to eliminate the “county party line” from the primary ballot. This was viewed by these leaders as an effort to take away their political “bread and butter.” To use the old cliche, “paybacks are a bitch,“ and Kim will face payback in great abundance from these Democratic county chairs during the forthcoming campaign.
The second is the campaign management team Bashaw has assembled. It is indeed a “dream team,” and four leaders stand out.
The first is the campaign chair, Michael Testa, Jr. I run out of superlatives in describing Mike – the most competent Republican member of the New Jersey State Senate and the most effective county GOP chair in the state. He is long on charisma and substance and short on political baggage. His support of Curtis in the primary was a major factor in the bridges built between the Bashaw campaign and county political organizations.
The second is the campaign consultant, Mike Duhaime. He is a top-flight strategist, with superb proficiency in targeting areas that can yield his candidate unanticipated large vote totals.
The next is communications director Jeanette Hoffman. She is that rare combination of methodology, strategy, and substance in the art of communications. Jeanette is also an excellent professional in her appearances on television talk shows, whether on behalf of a candidate or as a political analyst.
The fourth member of the Bashaw dream team is Rick Mroz, a most distinguished state government veteran in two GOP gubernatorial administrations. He served in such critical positions as director of the Governor’s Authorities Unit, Governor’s Chief Counsel, and President of the Board of Public Utilities. A US Senate candidate needs to be apprised of state as well as federal issues, and Rick’s knowledge of both is encyclopedic.
Finally, there is the “Menendez” factor – the continued presence on the ballot of indicted Democratic US Senator Bob Menendez as an independent. It is difficult at this point to gauge the impact of the Menendez candidacy on two critical Democratic constituencies, Hudson County and Latino voters. There is little doubt that the impact will be negative.
Last week, I authored a column on the political and private life of Curtis Bashaw. His quality as a candidate is indisputable. Certainly, as a Republican, he is an underdog in this undeniably blue Democratic state. At this point, I will not predict the outcome of this election. But the pathway to a Bashaw upset victory is most clear.
Alan J. Steinberg of Highland Park served as regional administrator of Region 2 EPA during the administration of former President George W. Bush and as executive director of the New Jersey Meadowlands Commission. He graduated from Northwestern University and the University of Wisconsin Law School.
(Visited 56 times, 56 visits today)
In the upcoming November elections in New Jersey, there is a possibility of an upset victory by a lesser-known candidate, known as a “Bashaw.” This term refers to a candidate who is not widely recognized or supported by the political establishment, but manages to win against all odds.
There are several factors that could contribute to a Bashaw upset victory in the November elections. One key factor is voter dissatisfaction with the current political climate. Many voters are disillusioned with the traditional political parties and are looking for alternative candidates who offer a fresh perspective and new ideas.
Another factor that could lead to a Bashaw upset victory is the power of social media and grassroots organizing. In today’s digital age, candidates can reach a wide audience through social media platforms and mobilize supporters through online campaigns. This allows lesser-known candidates to build a strong base of support and compete with more established candidates.
Additionally, issues of corruption and scandal within the political establishment could also play a role in a Bashaw upset victory. If voters are fed up with the status quo and looking for change, they may be more willing to take a chance on a lesser-known candidate who promises to clean up politics and bring about real reform.
It is important to note that while a Bashaw upset victory is possible, it is not guaranteed. Winning an election requires a strong campaign strategy, effective messaging, and a dedicated team of supporters. However, in today’s political climate, anything is possible, and we could see a surprise victory by a Bashaw candidate in the November elections in New Jersey.
