If NJ establishment Dems had no coordinated, dedicated GOTV effort, they went to bed at night ahead of the election with their heads cleared of conscience, should such a concept still exist therein. Republicans had made gains, sure, but while the GOP had increased their ranks by 12.5% or 178,474 since 2020, Dems still had a 2.5 to 1.6 million registration advantage. People would turn out on their own. Plus, New Jersey might be a cash cow in prez elections, but it doesn’t swing. It’s blue. They rationalized little ongoing worrying signs like rank-and-file Building Trades Labor going with Donald Trump as Kamala Harris 2024 trouble and nothing that would persist once they engaged next year. Plus, lying down on the job this year could give a middle finger to progressive do-gooder Andy Kim, who had humiliated them in the pre-primary when Tammy Murphy preposterously pretzled them and Kim dug in with disastrous consequences for the organizations. Let him know what it feels like, let Kim sweat a little, they thought as they turned out the lights on Tuesday, Nov. 4th, and slept like babes in the toy land of 2025.
That mindset wasn’t completely different among the old, hard-boiled ward heelers across the river in Philadelphia, the heart of the national battleground, where they engaged, but still hadn’t gotten over the shock of their favorite son, Joe Biden, looking like a portrait of situational unawareness in his one debate with Donald Trump and going belly up. They were still angry, hurt, irritated, and distrustful of Kamala Harris. Who was she? Who did she think she was, stepping over our Joe? There was some of that. It reflected early on Harris’ abbreviated campaign trail in the Building Trades guys’ obvious resistance. But those were a few Fox News-watching guys huddled up in the same taverns after work telling one another how things were tough all over, snow-jobbed into opposing their own economic interests. Riding over $400 billion in domestic infrastructure investment, the Biden Administration had a labor record second only to FDR in the annals of American political history. But too many guys were wearing dresses out there, and the guys didn’t dig that, or so they said or intimated, and, well, who could blame them, or anyway if that bothers you, and anyway, everyone else would vote Dem. Well, the Muslims, too … That’s ok. Free country and what not. And people were better informed. Weren’t they? Well, no. But Donald Trump was a madman and surely people could see that. Wouldn’t they? He did act like a lot of people in this culture, narcissistic, ignorant, grotesque. Sure. But women. Women would get it, and women would save the party, er rather, the country. Yes. They’d save the country from Kamala, er, Trump.
Philly would do what Philly would do. No more. No less. It would be enough.
Remember 2022?
That was the secret weapon in this election, or so Democrats who cared told one another, reflecting on the reproductive freedom threat caused by the Trump Supreme Court reversal of Roe v. Wade.
Women. Would. Ride. To. The. Rescue.
Pre-Election Day, concerned allies of the vice president’s donned rose-colored glasses rather than let the warning sings assail them. What were the warning signs? Firstly, would Harris’ base of support be big enough and sufficiently reflect a broad American coalition? At the big rally on the Parkway on the eve of the election, a huge crowd showed up. A ton of women. So far, so good. But if you were looking for a giant-sized heterosexual male footprint, you might have found a few guys dragged there by their wives, trying to summon their best Braveheart faces while firmly under the heels of their partners. Well, there were also the hard-working fellas hawking pretzels and t-shirts to the crowd. Maybe that’s an exaggeration, but honestly not really. It’s not too far off. What else stood out on that intensifying political landscape? Get-out-and-vote signs stood all over town on telegraph poles, but they strangely featured the central dominating image not of Kamala Harris, but Barack Obama. As one operative mentioned to InsiderNJ, “That shows her own people don’t trust her enough to actually be the candidate.” It brought to mind the 2009 New Jersey gubernatorial contest a year after Obama smoked John McCain to make history as the country’s first African-American president. In all the cities, from Camden to Atlantic, to Newark, a moribund grey face of unpopular incumbent Democratic Governor Jon Corzine appeared beside the young Obama accompanied by the tagline, “Keep it going. Corzine 2009.” Driving around town, someone had the persistent image of Jon Corzine on those signs.
But Trump was a madman.
Right, boys?
And women would save the party, er, the country.
Democrats were a little weirded out by the early returns in Philly.
They hadn’t expected heavy, heavy turnout.
They hadn’t fought to the last man out there, so, it must be, well, it must be women saving the day, or so came the early prognostications.
Women got it. Or they didn’t get it, but anyway, you know what I mean, the veteran operators reasoned. They got it. They had gotten it then. They had gotten it now. And they would always get it, just like the t-shirts said: “The Future is Female.” Those poor off-duty guys lying on their couches at home, too beaten to get up and vote, living in their Fox torture chambers.
It looked good, Dems thought. If they had a set goal of 500,000 plurality in the heavily Democratic town to deliver massive Philadelphia participation and deliver Pennsylvania to Harris, their 2024 numbers smashed 2020 numbers by 1 p.m. They were going to win. Or anyway, Harris would win.
A Trump GOTV truck rumbled into a McDonald’s parking lot on Election Day. The driver headed inside. He all but heard jeers. Dems found the truck intellectually offensive. Someone wondered aloud if the truck was a Tesla. Dems were killing it in Philly. How dare that truck show up over here? Stupid. He’s just creating more urban turnout. Take it to the bank.
The Dems weren’t totally in the dark, of course, and in the lead-up to the evening rush, they started drilling into higher performance pockets, which included – a little worryingly – Latino neighborhoods, Jewish neighborhoods, and Building Trades strongholds. Well, those were women, right, chained to domineering men who were coming out in droves to counteract the males in their lives, who couldn’t see the lurid Caligula implications of Trump. They were moving to correct the problem and make right what hubby – God love him – just couldn’t get in his quaint little barbarian mind, still fixated on hunting and gathering and unable to keep up with western civilization. Those conversations or rationalizations began to sound increasingly, well, ridiculous, and huddled up in their foxholes, establishment Dems finally broke a terrifying sweat.
No. Wait.
Latinos were ticked off by that comedian. What was his name again? The guy who likened Puerto Rico to floating garbage. All Latinos formed a block of RAGE and would turn… the… election… and save… the… country. Puerto Rico and their Hispanic brothers rushing to the aid of their island in arms would save American from a convicted felon madman.
Hispanics and women.
Right?
Right, lads?
They didn’t have the energy to spin it anymore.
They couldn’t choke it down, not to that degree.
Realization deepened.
They were indeed under attack.
The high numbers of Philadelphia reflected Trump’s success at penetrating into those key groups with males, and spiking turnout among Hispanics, Building Trades whites, and some black males (three in ten under the age of 45, according to The Associated Press). Twenty million fewer voters went for Harris in 2024 than for Biden in 2020. In New Jersey, the trend lines of Philadelphia stood in stark relief, as Jewish Livingston went Trump, the City of Passaic (a perfect Trump storm of orthodox Jews and Hispanics) went Trump, the City of Paterson (a backlash of Hispanic males and Muslim voters incensed by Harris’ unwillingness to call for an immediate Gaza ceasefire. Of course, Muslims proved another key, especially in Michigan, their anti-numbers affirmed in Paterson) sustained heavy fire. Look at these numbers in Paterson, New Jersey’s third biggest city: 14,091 for Harris, 8,260 for Trump. That’s a major incursion onto turf supposedly rock solid for the Democratic Party. South Jersey? Building Trades-heavy South Jersey? That turned red a long time ago. Likeable, lovable country dentist U.S. Rep. Jeff Van Drew had turned from a Democrat to one of Trump’s most visible and strident supporters, remember? Jeff Van Drew – Trump’s state director. In heavily Hispanic Hudson, where Harris should have crushed Trump, he picked up 34% or 77,000 votes. He picked off and peeled from everywhere, even among women, as Harris’ support among her own gender fell from Biden’s 2020 result of 55% to 43% to 53%-46% for the Harris Trump election. Critically, young men, aged 18-29, shifted rightward by 30 points in this election. In 2020, that same demographic voted for Biden by 15 points.
Who was going to save the country from that authoritarian madman, the Dems groggily wondered, pieces chipped out of them, but not enough to diminish their sense of direction, as they headed for Atlantic City on the shores of New Jersey later this month to party in the after-image glow of the world Trump built down there with Building Trades labor, epicurean conviction, and Dem-facilitated regs, that same glowing gambling mecca he ultimately abandoned for the presidency. Twice.
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As the 2024 election season heats up, all eyes are turning towards the battleground states that will ultimately determine the outcome of the race. One such battleground state is New Jersey, a state that has long been a key player in presidential elections.
Inside the war room of a political campaign in New Jersey, strategists are hard at work analyzing polling data, crafting messaging, and devising a game plan to secure victory in the state. The room is abuzz with activity as staffers work tirelessly to ensure their candidate comes out on top.
One of the key factors that will influence the outcome of the 2024 election in New Jersey is the state’s diverse population. With a mix of urban, suburban, and rural areas, candidates must tailor their message to appeal to a wide range of voters. Issues such as healthcare, education, and the economy will all play a role in swaying voters one way or another.
Another important aspect of the 2024 election in New Jersey is the state’s unique political landscape. While traditionally a Democratic stronghold, New Jersey has seen its fair share of Republican victories in recent years. This means that campaigns must be strategic in their approach, targeting key demographics and regions in order to secure the necessary votes.
One of the most pressing concerns for campaigns in New Jersey is the state’s urban areas, where poverty, crime, and social issues are prevalent. Candidates must address these issues head-on, offering solutions that resonate with voters who are struggling to make ends meet.
As the 2024 election season unfolds, all eyes will be on New Jersey as a key battleground state. With its diverse population, unique political landscape, and pressing social issues, campaigns must be strategic in their approach in order to secure victory in this crucial state. The war room is buzzing with activity as strategists work tirelessly to craft a winning strategy that will ultimately determine the outcome of the race.
