“Independent voters break for Trump in all seven states – however, there has been some movement among these voters since April,” Kimball said. “In Arizona, Trump’s support among independents dropped five points, from 48% to 43%. In Michigan, Trump’s support dropped three, from 44% to 41%, and in Pennsylvania, Trump dropped eight points, from 49% to 41%. Biden lost support among independents in Georgia, by six points, 42% to 36% and Nevada, by five, 37% to 32%.”
While Biden trails Trump, the Democratic Senate candidate leads the Republican candidate in Arizona, Minnesota, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
Democratic Senate candidates outperform Biden by two in Arizona, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, three in Minnesota, and seven in Nevada.
- AZ: Ruben Gallego (D) 45%, Kari Lake (R) 41%, 14% undecided
- MN: Amy Klobuchar (D) 48%, Royce White (R) 37%, 11% undecided
- MI: Elissa Slotkin (D) 43%, Mike Rogers (R) 39%, 18% undecided
- NV: Jacky Rosen (D) 50%, Sam Brown (R) 38%, 13% undecided
- PA: Bob Casey (D) 47%, David McCormick (R) 41%, 12% undecided
- WI: Tammy Baldwin (D) 46%, Eric Hovde (R) 44%, 10% undecided
Biden State Approval
- AZ: 36% approve, 54% disapprove, 10% neutral
- GA: 35% approve, 54% disapprove, 11% neutral
- MI: 39% approve, 52% disapprove, 10% neutral
- MN: 38% approve, 51% disapprove, 11% neutral
- NV: 38% approve, 54% disapprove, 9% neutral
- PA: 39% approve, 53% disapprove, 8% neutral
Gubernatorial State Approval
- AZ: Katie Hobbs (D) 36% approve, 43% disapprove, 22% neutral
- GA: Brian Kemp (R) 49% approve, 28% disapprove, 23% neutral
- MI: Gretchen Whitmer (D) 49% approve, 40% disapprove, 11% neutral
- MN: Tim Walz (D) 45% approve, 42% disapprove, 13% neutral
- NV: Joe Lombardo (R) 37% approve, 30% disapprove, 33% neutral
- PA: Josh Shapiro (D) 49% approve, 29% disapprove, 22% neutral
State Issues
Voters in Arizona and Nevada were asked if they would vote “yes” or “no” on a potential ballot measure to establish the constitutional right to abortion in their state. In Arizona, 56% would vote “yes,” 26% would vote “no,” and 18% are not sure yet. In Nevada, 58% would vote “yes,” 20% “no,” and 21% are not sure yet.
- Women in Arizona would vote “yes” 61% to 23%; men support the measure 50% to 29%.
- Women in Nevada support the measure 52% to 17%; men support 54% to 25%.
Regarding a ballot measure in Arizona that allowed for state and local police to arrest noncitizens who cross the border unlawfully, and allow state judges to order deportations, 55% would vote “yes,” 29% “no,” and 16% are not sure.
The most important issue for each state remains the economy: 45% consider it to be the top issue in Georgia, 41% in Michigan, 34% in Minnesota, 35% in Nevada, 44% in Pennsylvania, and 42% in Wisconsin. However, in Arizona voters are split between the economy (27%) and immigration (26%).
According to the latest Emerson poll, President Donald Trump is currently leading former Vice President Joe Biden in the upcoming election. The poll, conducted by Emerson College, shows Trump with a slight edge over Biden, with 48% of likely voters supporting the incumbent president compared to 46% for Biden.
This news comes as a surprise to many political analysts and pundits who have been predicting a strong showing for Biden in the polls. However, the Emerson poll suggests that Trump’s base of support remains solid, despite the ongoing controversies and challenges facing his administration.
One possible explanation for Trump’s lead in the Emerson poll could be the recent economic gains and job growth that have occurred under his presidency. The strong economy has been a key selling point for Trump throughout his time in office, and it appears to be resonating with voters as they head to the polls.
Additionally, Trump’s aggressive campaigning style and ability to energize his base of supporters may also be contributing to his lead in the polls. The president has been holding rallies and events across the country, rallying his supporters and generating enthusiasm for his re-election bid.
On the other hand, Biden’s campaign has faced some challenges in recent weeks, including criticism over his handling of the coronavirus pandemic and questions about his mental acuity. These issues may be impacting his standing in the polls and giving Trump an advantage heading into the election.
It’s important to note that polls are just one snapshot in time and can fluctuate as the campaign season progresses. There are still several weeks to go before Election Day, and anything can happen between now and then.
As the race heats up, both candidates will be looking to gain momentum and secure the support of undecided voters. The outcome of the election remains uncertain, but one thing is clear: it’s going to be a closely contested battle between Trump and Biden.
