| “Since before the first presidential debate, former President Trump’s support remains at 46%, while President Biden’s support has decreased two percentage points,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said. “Notable shifts away from Biden occurred among independent voters, who break for Trump 42% to 38%; last month they broke for Biden 43% to 41%.”
With third-party candidates on the ballot, 44% support Trump, 40% Biden, 6% support Robert F. Kennedy Jr., and 1% support Cornel West and Jill Stein respectively.
Voter motivation varies by race, age and party:
- 78% of Republicans are extremely motivated, compared to 65% of Democrats and 63% of independents.
- 79% of white voters are extremely motivated to vote in this year’s presidential election, compared to 53% of Black voters and 49% of Hispanic voters.
- Generally, as age increases, so does the percentage of voters who say they are extremely motivated to vote: 39% of people ages 18 to 29 are “extremely” motivated to vote, 49% of 30 to 39-year-olds, 72% of 40 to 49-year-olds, 76% of 50 to 59-year-olds, 91% of 60 to 69-year-olds, and 83% of people ages 70 and older.
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A series of prominent Democrats were tested in a head-to-head ballot against Donald Trump:
- Vice President Kamala Harris: 49% Trump, 43% Harris, 8% undecided
- Senator Bernie Sanders: 48% Trump, 42% Sanders, 10% undecided
- Former Vice President Al Gore: 47% Trump, 42% Gore, 11% undecided
- California Governor Gavin Newsom: 48% Trump, 40% Newsom, 12% undecided
- Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton: 48% Trump, 41% Clinton, 11% undecided
- Senator Elizabeth Warren: 49% Trump, 39% Warren, 13% undecided
- Secretary of State Pete Buttigieg: 49% Trump, 39% Buttigieg, 12% undecided
- Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro: 46% Trump, 38% Shapiro, 16% undecided
- Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer: 48% Trump, 38% Whitmer, 15% undecided
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| President Biden’s job approval increased two points since last month, from 37% to 39%, while his disapproval dropped one point, from 53% to 52%.
A majority of voters (56%) think the U.S. foreign policy is worse now than it was four years ago. Twenty-seven percent think foreign policy is better now; 17% think it is about the same.
“Perception of the status of U.S. foreign policy varies by party: 48% of Democrats think foreign policy is better now than four years ago, 87% of Republicans think it is worse, while 54% of independents think it is worse,” Kimball noted.
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According to the latest Emerson poll results, President Donald Trump is currently leading former Vice President Joe Biden by 3%. This news comes as a surprise to many political analysts and experts who had previously predicted a closer race between the two candidates.
The poll, which was conducted among likely voters nationwide, shows Trump with 48% support compared to Biden’s 45%. This slight lead for Trump is significant as it indicates that he may have a slight advantage heading into the final stretch of the campaign.
One of the key factors contributing to Trump’s lead in the Emerson poll is his strong support among white voters, particularly white men without a college degree. These demographics have been a reliable base of support for the President throughout his time in office and continue to show strong backing for his re-election bid.
Additionally, Trump’s handling of the economy has been a major selling point for many voters, with a majority of respondents in the Emerson poll expressing confidence in his ability to manage the country’s economic recovery following the COVID-19 pandemic.
On the other hand, Biden continues to struggle with enthusiasm among his supporters, with many expressing concerns about his age and ability to lead the country effectively. This lack of enthusiasm could be a significant factor in his trailing position in the polls.
It is important to note that polls are just one snapshot in time and can fluctuate as the campaign progresses. With just a few weeks left until Election Day, both candidates will be working hard to secure every last vote and sway undecided voters in their favor.
As the race tightens and the stakes grow higher, it will be interesting to see how these poll results impact the strategies of both campaigns moving forward. The outcome of the election remains uncertain, but one thing is clear – every vote will count in this closely contested race.
