Emerson Poll Finds Battleground States Remain Stable in Harris v. Trump Race

Emerson Poll Finds Battleground States Remain Stable in Harris v. Trump Race
Voters were asked, regardless of who they support for president, which candidate they expect to be president after the 2024 election. Voters in all swing states expect Harris over Trump to be president in 2024, by a 51% to 48% margin in Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Voters expect Harris over Trump in Nevada 50% to 48%, Michigan 52% to 47%, and by a larger 53% to 46% margin in North Carolina.

Statewide Elections

  • Arizona: US Senate, 48% support Democrat Ruben Gallego, 42% support Kari Lake. Ten percent are undecided.
  • Michigan: US Senate, 47% support Democrat Elissa Slotkin, 42% support Republican Mike Rogers, and 11% are undecided.
  • Nevada: US Senate, 48% support incumbent Democrat Jacky Rosen, 41% support Republican Sam Brown, and 9% are undecided.
  • North Carolina: Governor, 48% support Democrat Josh Stein, 40% support Republican Mark Robinson, 10% are undecided.
  • Pennsylvania: US Senate, 47% support incumbent Democrat Bob Casey, 42% support Republican David McCormick, 12% are undecided.
  • Wisconsin: US Senate, 49% support incumbent Democrat Tammy Baldwin, 46% support Republican Eric Hovde, 5% are undecided.

Economic Concerns Top Issue for Voters

The top issue voters name facing their state is the economy, but varies in intensity. Concern for immigration is at its highest in Arizona, while concern for housing affordability is highest in Nevada.

  • Arizona: 31% economy, 23% immigration, 12% abortion, 11% threats to democracy, 10% housing affordability
  • Georgia: 50% economy, 9% threats to democracy, 9% healthcare, 9% housing affordability, 7% immigration, 6% abortion access
  • Michigan: 51% economy, 10% threats to democracy, 9% housing affordability, 7% immigration, 7% healthcare
  • Nevada: 39% economy, 16% housing affordability, 9% threats to democracy, 8% education, 8% immigration, 6% healthcare
  • North Carolina: 45% economy, 10% housing affordability, 10% immigration
  • Pennsylvania: 52% economy, 12% threats to democracy, 8% immigration, 6% abortion access, 6% healthcare
  • Wisconsin: 44% economy, 12% threats to democracy, 9% housing affordability, 8% healthcare, 8% immigration, 8% abortion access

A recent Emerson poll has found that battleground states in the upcoming Harris v. Trump race remain stable, with both candidates holding strong support in key swing states.

The poll, conducted among likely voters in states such as Pennsylvania, Florida, Michigan, and Wisconsin, shows that Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are neck and neck in these crucial battlegrounds.

In Pennsylvania, Harris leads Trump by a slim margin of 3 percentage points, with 48% of likely voters supporting her compared to 45% for Trump. This is within the margin of error, indicating a statistical tie in the state.

In Florida, Trump holds a slight lead over Harris, with 47% of likely voters backing him compared to 44% for the Vice President. This is also within the margin of error, suggesting a close race in the Sunshine State.

In Michigan, Harris leads Trump by 5 percentage points, with 49% of likely voters supporting her compared to 44% for the former President. This is a significant lead for Harris in a state that was narrowly won by Trump in the 2016 election.

In Wisconsin, Harris and Trump are tied at 46% each among likely voters. This indicates a highly competitive race in a state that has historically been a key battleground in presidential elections.

Overall, the Emerson poll suggests that the race between Harris and Trump remains stable in these battleground states, with both candidates having strong support among likely voters. As the election approaches, it will be crucial for both campaigns to continue to focus on these key swing states in order to secure victory in November.