| The first Emerson College Polling national survey following President Biden’s decision not to seek re-election finds Vice President Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump 50% to 46%. Five percent of likely voters are undecided. With undecided voters’ support allocated, Harris continues to lead by four, 52% to 48%. With third-party candidates on the ballot, Harris and Trump’s support evenly decreases by two points, Harris to 48% and Trump to 44%. Four percent support Robert F. Kennedy Jr. |
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| This month’s national poll included only those who indicate they are very likely to vote, previous polls included all registered voters. Registered voters were asked their voting intention and only very likely voters were included in this analysis.
Since last month, Trump’s support decreased two points among likely voters, from 48% to 46%, while Harris surpassed Biden’s 47% by three percentage points, at 50%. When third-party candidates are on the ballot, Trump’s support decreased by one point, from 45% to 44% since last month, while Harris outperformed Biden by four points from 44% to 48%.
Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, explains demographic shifts in the past month: “Likely voters under 30 have shifted toward Harris by nine points, 56% of whom supported Biden, 65% now support Harris. Voters over 70 also support Harris over Trump, 51% to 48% — last month they broke 50% to 48% for Trump.”
Kimball added, “Independents break for Harris, 46% to 45%, flipping since last month when likely independent voters broke for Trump 45% to 44%.
Ninety-three percent of voters are extremely or very motivated to vote this November.
“While the overall share of likely voters motivated to vote had little movement, Black voters who say they are ‘extremely’ or ‘very’ motivated to vote this November increased eleven points, from 80% to 91%,” Kimball said.
Over half of voters (51%) have a favorable view of Vice President Harris, while 49% have an unfavorable view of Harris. Forty-five percent have a favorable view of former President Trump, while 54% have an unfavorable view of Trump.
Thirty-nine percent of voters have a favorable view of both Vice Presidential candidates Tim Walz and JD Vance. Thirty-nine percent have an unfavorable view of Walz, while 49% have an unfavorable view of JD Vance. Twenty-two percent have never heard of Walz, while 12% have never heard of Vance.
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| On the generic congressional ballot, 48% support the Democratic candidate and 46% support the Republican candidate; 7% are undecided. Last month, 46% of likely voters supported the Democratic candidate and 46% the Republican.
A majority of voters (69%) think taxes on tips should be eliminated, while 17% think tips should remain taxable; 14% are unsure.
“Eliminating taxes on tips has bipartisan support among voters: 72% of Republicans, 71% of independents, and 64% of Democrats think taxes on tips should be eliminated,” Kimball said.
Forty percent of voters consider the economy to be the most important issue facing the nation, followed by immigration (17%), threats to democracy (12%), housing affordability (7%), and healthcare (7%).
Following the 2024 Olympic closing ceremonies, 3 in 5 voters are excited for the Olympics to be held in Los Angeles in 2028; 40% are not excited. Forty-five percent are completely (21%) or fairly (24%) confident Los Angeles can successfully manage the challenges of hosting the 2028 Olympics, 21% are somewhat confident, 19% are slightly confident, and 15% are not at all confident.
- Excitement generally decreases with age: 70% of those under 30 are excited, compared to 68% of voters in their 30s, 58% of voters in their 40s, 54% of those in their 50s, 56% of those in their 50s, and 53% of those over 70.
- Democrats are most excited about the Olympic location in 2028, 76% are excited, compared to 54% of independents who are excited, 47% of Republicans are excited.
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According to a recent Emerson National Poll, Vice President Kamala Harris is leading former President Donald Trump by 4%. The poll, conducted by Emerson College, surveyed 1,000 registered voters nationwide and found that 51% would vote for Harris in a hypothetical matchup against Trump, who garnered 47% of the support.
This poll result comes as no surprise to political analysts, as Harris has been a prominent figure in the Democratic Party and has a strong base of support among women, people of color, and younger voters. Additionally, her performance as Vice President has been widely praised, particularly in her handling of the COVID-19 pandemic and efforts to promote racial justice and equality.
On the other hand, Trump continues to be a polarizing figure in American politics, with a loyal base of supporters but also facing criticism for his handling of the pandemic, divisive rhetoric, and controversial policies. Despite this, he remains a formidable force within the Republican Party and has not ruled out a potential run for president in 2024.
It is important to note that polls are just a snapshot in time and can fluctuate as events unfold and campaigns evolve. However, this latest Emerson National Poll is a clear indication that Harris is a strong contender for the presidency and could pose a significant challenge to Trump if they were to face off in the 2024 election.
As the political landscape continues to shift and evolve, it will be interesting to see how these numbers change and what impact they may have on the upcoming election cycle. Stay tuned for more updates and analysis on this developing story.
