With more than a month to go until New Jersey’s June 10 primary, registered Republicans and Republican-leaning independents seem to be coalescing around Jack Ciattarelli, while registered Democrats and Democrat-leaning independents are more divided among the six candidates in their race, according to the latest Rutgers-Eagleton Poll.
About a third of each partisan group are still unsure of who they prefer.
“We currently have a tale of two primaries,” said Ashley Koning, an assistant research professor and director of the Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling (ECPIP) at Rutgers University-New Brunswick. “On the Republican side, a leading candidate is coming into focus, while on the Democratic side, there is no clear frontrunner, given that most of the Democratic candidates are within striking distance of one another.”
When asked to think about the upcoming primary, 42% of New Jersey registered Republicans and Republican-leaning independents surveyed say they prefer former assemblyman and 2021 Republican gubernatorial nominee Jack Ciattarelli. Former radio host Bill Spadea comes in a distant second, with 12%. Four percent of Republicans say they prefer state Sen. Jon Bramnick, 3% chose Justin Barbera, and no one chooses Mario Kranjac. Four percent say they prefer none of these candidates.
When asked who their second choice would be, it is a toss-up between Spadea (16%), Bramnick (12%), and Ciattarelli (12%) – all within the margin of error.
Republicans and Republican-leaning independents are split as to whether an endorsement from President Trump would make them more likely to vote for a Republican candidate (46%) or if it would have no effect on their vote (46%); 7% say it would make them less likely to vote for the endorsed candidate.
The Democratic side is more complicated. Seventeen percent of registered Democrats and Democrat-leaning independents prefer U.S. Rep. Mikie Sherrill, followed by Jersey City Mayor Steve Fulop at 12% – a difference within the margin of error. Next is New Jersey Education Association president Sean Spiller at 10%, followed by U.S. Rep. Josh Gottheimer and Newark Mayor Ras Baraka each at 9%, and then former state Senate President Steve Sweeney at 7%. Four percent say they prefer none of these candidates.
When asked who their second choice would be, Gottheimer (16%) and Sherrill (15%) top the list, followed by Baraka (13%), Spiller (12%), and Fulop (11%) – all within the margin of error. Six percent pick Sweeney as their second choice.
“All of the candidates have made some progress since the fall in terms of voters knowing who they are, but they haven’t made noticeable gains in favorability,” Koning said. “Though not necessarily unusual at this stage in the game, candidates on both sides of the aisle still lack name recognition from a notable number of voters, and no candidate on either side of the aisle is viewed favorably by more than one in five voters.”
On the Democratic side, 20% of all voters view Sherrill favorably, 14% unfavorably and 22% have no opinion; 44% still don’t know who she is. Gottheimer is at 18% favorable versus 19% unfavorable, with 25% having no opinion; 38% still don’t know who he is. Fifteen percent view Baraka favorably, 16% unfavorably and 24% have no opinion; 46% still don’t know who he is. Thirteen percent of voters view Sweeney favorably, 21% unfavorably, 33% have no opinion and 34% still don’t know who he is. Fourteen percent view Sean Spiller favorably, another 17% unfavorably and 26% have no opinion; 42% still don’t know who he is. Twelve percent of voters are favorable toward Fulop, 12% are unfavorable, 30% have no opinion and 46% still don’t know who he is.
It’s a similar picture on the Republican side among the top contenders: Eighteen percent view Ciattarelli favorably, 24% unfavorably, 26% have no opinion and 32% still don’t know him. Eight percent view Spadea favorably, 18% unfavorably, 24% have no opinion and 51% still don’t know who he is. Six percent give Bramnick a favorable rating, 8% unfavorable and 21% have no opinion; 65% still don’t know who he is.
Fifty-five percent of voters claim they are “very likely” to vote in the June primary and another 22% say “somewhat likely”; 11% say they are “not very likely” and 9% say “not at all likely.”
“This kind of turnout in an off-cycle election is unlikely, particularly given New Jersey’s history of low primary turnout,” said Jessica Roman, director of data management and analysis at ECPIP. “Turnout is generally much lower in off-cycle, off-year, and primary elections. This June will be about who candidates get to turn out and how many.”
Results are from a statewide poll of 1,058 adults contacted through the probability-based Rutgers-Eagleton/SSRS Garden State Panel from April 1 to April 10. The full sample has a margin of error of +/- 4.1 percentage points. The registered voter subsample contains 966 registered voters and has a margin of error of +/- 4.3 percentage points.
In the latest Rutgers-Eagleton Poll, Republican candidate Jack Ciattarelli has emerged as the frontrunner in the race for New Jersey governor, leading his fellow GOP contenders by a significant margin. The poll, which surveyed likely Republican primary voters, showed Ciattarelli with a commanding lead over his competitors, including Hirsh Singh and Phil Rizzo.
Ciattarelli, a former state assemblyman, has been gaining momentum in recent weeks, with his campaign focusing on issues such as property taxes, education reform, and economic recovery. His strong showing in the poll is a testament to his growing support among Republican voters in the state.
On the Democratic side, the race for governor is still up for grabs, with no clear frontrunner emerging among the candidates. The poll showed that a significant number of Democratic voters remain undecided, indicating that the primary race is still wide open.
Among the Democratic candidates vying for the nomination are former state senator Barbara Buono, state senator Ray Lesniak, and former U.S. ambassador to Germany Phil Murphy. Each candidate brings their own unique perspective and platform to the race, making it a competitive and unpredictable contest.
With the general election just months away, both Republican and Democratic candidates are ramping up their campaigns and reaching out to voters across the state. The Rutgers-Eagleton Poll provides valuable insight into the current state of the race and gives voters a glimpse into where each candidate stands in the eyes of their respective party’s base.
As the race for governor heats up, it will be interesting to see how the candidates continue to position themselves and appeal to voters in New Jersey. With Ciattarelli leading the pack on the Republican side and the Democratic nomination still up for grabs, the upcoming primary elections are sure to be closely watched and highly contested.
