Following the 2024 General Election, where Donald Trump defeated Vice President Kamala Harris and is set to return to the White House, Insider NJ takes a look at the quakes that shook the Garden State’s political scene.
Who’s Up?
Representative Tom Kean, Jr. – the son of former New Jersey governor Tom Kean defended his seat in CD-7 against a spirited campaign from Democratic challenger Sue Altman. The only race deemed competitive in New Jersey’s congressional races, Kean had the advantage of a redder map following the redistricting that doomed Tom Malinowski. Following a general nation-wide trend of Republican resurgence, Kean will return to Washington DC for another term.
Who’s Down?
Establishment Democrats – across the board, Democrats retained their congressional seats and no alteration to the Red/Blue makeup of the House or Senate delegation was seen. That being said, Democrats underperformed, seeing their margins close up. The Democratic delegation survived largely thanks to the fortified (some would say gerrymandered) redistricting map that sacrificed CD-7 to protect the rest. Establishment Democrats clearly were unable to energize their base of support behind the Vice President, barely delivering her 51% of the vote, with down-ballot implications. The million-advantage in registered Democrats has proven, especially in light of the close race between Ciattarelli and Murphy in 2021, to be merely an administrative fact. Democratic Party leaders need to re-examine their perspectives, prioritize reconnecting with voters on the street—not in banquet hall fundraisers, and actually pay attention to what they’re saying.
Who’s Up?
Trump Republicans – you would think that New Jersey was a swing state, given the poor performance of Kamala Harris and the uptick in new voter registration for the GOP compared to the Democratic Party. With a second Trump administration forming, the NJGOP can be expected to draw electoral strength if not for federal races in the 2026 midterm, then doubtlessly on the county and local level where power bases are shaped and maintained as fixtures.
Who’s Down?
Curtis Bashaw – New Jersey has not sent a Republican senator to Washington since the early 70s, when Bashaw was a kid. Both Kim and Bashaw had relatively limited name recognition, although Kim had the advantage of being in government since 2018. The presumably moderate, pro-choice, openly gay Republican nominee put up a stronger-than-expected showing against Andy Kim, but still was unable to get across the finish line amid a national Red Wave of MAGA fever. This “Who’s Down” could potentially include the likes of Jon Bramnick and Jack Ciattarelli, eyeing the governor’s race in 2025, as the former is known to be a moderate and anti-Trumper, with the latter having vacillated between an anti-Trump and pro-Trump stance since 2015.
Who’s Up?
Representatives Josh Gottheimer and Mikie Sherrill – A centrist who champions his bipartisan working record in a purple district, Gottheimer weathered the storm and still performed fairly well. No Democrats on the state or federal level had a landslide, but Gottheimer has tenaciously made his case to his constituents against the Texas-born Mary Jo Guinchard, capturing a solid 54.6% of the vote, approximately the same mandate he received in 2022, 2020, and 2018. Incumbent Mikie Sherrill, a navy veteran and attorney, also was first elected in 2018. She has maintained a similar level of victory compared to her previous years, slightly outperforming Gottheimer this year by carrying 55.9% in CD-11. Both Gottheimer and Sherrill, northern New Jersey Democrats with lasting power amid tempestuous political climates, are serious considerations for the Democratic choice in the upcoming governor’s election.
Who’s Down?
Pollsters – Once again, the polls have proven to be unreliable, despite the myriad number of resources employed, pollsters are, apparently, unable to gain the relevant information needed from the correct samples to deliver accurate predictions. Since 2016, where Trump was all but dismissed as an impossibility against Hillary Clinton, polls have tended to miss the mark by more than what the average reader would consider a “reasonable margin of error.” Women voter enthusiasm for Harris was either dramatically over-estimated or completely misunderstood, where pollsters expected the women’s vote to solidly line up behind Harris, anticipating aisle-crossing among the critical white Republican female base, while Trump-leaning men would be outnumbered. This is, it seems, not the case. Next time someone asks you who is going to win a race, whip out a crystal ball handy and get imaginative. You’re either right or you’re wrong in the end.
Who’s Up?
Representative Andy Kim – Even though Democratic performance was, frankly, abysmal, and the pollsters incorrectly predicted a strong Kim victory (see above), Kim took 53.1% of the vote to Bashaw’s 44.6%. While his mandate is less than overwhelming, it is still a mandate, and the 42-year-old senator-elect will make history as the first Korean-American senator from the East Coast. His campaign will also be remembered for overcoming the challenges set before him by the Democratic machine—clearly an out-of-touch apparatus—that tried to spoon-feed First Lady Tammy Murphy to the voters while Kim got much-coveted “line” on the ballot scrapped in court.
Who’s Down?
Governor Phil Murphy – For a political year, Governor Murphy is closing his second term on a weak note. Unable to have made the case that his wife should succeed corrupt US Senator Bob Menendez, an incoming Trump administration means there is no chance he will be leaving the Garden State for a federal appointment domestically or abroad, as he might have made such a case for during a second Biden or a hypothetical Harris administration. Drifting into Lame Duck Territory, with his second term closing, and the road to DC blocked both for himself and Mrs. Murphy, the governor’s political leverage will be waning fast with eyes turning to the future. What is ahead of Phil Murphy is up to him to decide, but, for the foreseeable future, his political career is writing its last chapter. As Democrats look to regroup in the upcoming gubernatorial race, for better or worse, his record will come under renewed examination and play a factor in the race ahead.
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New Jersey’s political landscape is constantly evolving, with new players entering the scene and old ones losing ground. Insider NJ recently conducted an analysis of the state’s political landscape to determine who is gaining power and who is losing influence.
One of the key players gaining ground in New Jersey politics is Governor Phil Murphy. Since taking office in 2018, Murphy has made significant strides in advancing his progressive agenda, including raising the minimum wage, expanding access to healthcare, and increasing funding for public education. His approval ratings have been on the rise, and he has been successful in working with the state legislature to pass key pieces of legislation.
Another rising star in New Jersey politics is Senator Cory Booker. Booker, who is currently running for president, has gained national attention for his passionate advocacy on issues such as criminal justice reform, gun control, and climate change. His strong presence on the national stage has helped to elevate his profile in New Jersey and solidify his standing as a key player in the state’s political landscape.
On the other hand, there are some politicians who are losing ground in New Jersey. One notable example is Senator Bob Menendez, who has faced criticism for his ties to wealthy donors and allegations of corruption. Menendez’s approval ratings have been on the decline, and he faces a tough re-election battle in 2024.
Additionally, some members of the state legislature have seen their influence wane in recent years. As new faces enter the political arena and voters demand change, long-standing politicians may find themselves struggling to maintain their power and relevance.
Overall, New Jersey’s political landscape is in a state of flux, with new leaders emerging and old ones facing challenges. As the state continues to grapple with pressing issues such as affordable housing, transportation infrastructure, and public education, it will be interesting to see how the balance of power shifts in the coming years.
