- Independents lean slightly towards Trump, with 48% supporting him compared to 45% for Harris. Suburban voters, however, favor Harris by a small margin, 50% to 47%.
- Among new voters (those who did not vote in 2020), Harris has a significant advantage, leading 61% to 31%.
- Voters under 40 support Harris over Trump, 61% to 36%. Trump’s strongest base is among voters aged 50-69, where he leads Harris 57% to 40%. The swing vote appears to be among voters aged 40-49, who are evenly split at 49% each. Voters over 70 lean towards Trump, with 52% supporting him compared to 47% for Harris.
- Trump leads Harris among Protestant voters 58% to 40%, and among Roman Catholic voters 60% to 39%. Harris leads among atheists and agnostic voters, who break 84% to 13% in her favor, and those with no particular religious affiliation, who support her 56% to 39%.
Last month, Trump led Harris 51% to 45% in Pennsylvania among very likely voters, his support dropping two points this month to 49%, and Harris’ support increasing three points, from 45% to 48%.
In the U.S. Senate election between incumbent Democrat Bob Casey and Republican Dave McCormick, 48% support Casey and 44% support McCormick; 8% are undecided. Since last month, Casey’s support among likely voters has stayed at 48%, while McCormick’s support among likely voters decreased from 47% to 44%.
“Six percent of Casey voters support Trump — compared to 1% of McCormick voters who support Harris,” Kimball added.
In the Attorney General election, 43% support Republican David Sunday and Democrat Eugene DePasquale respectively with 14% undecided.
President Biden holds a 38% job approval among Pennsylvania voters, while 54% have an unfavorable view of him. Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro holds a 51% job approval, 31% disapprove of the job he is doing as governor.
Forty-eight percent of voters have a favorable view of Vice President Harris, while 47% have a favorable view of Donald Trump. Fifty-two percent have a negative view of Harris while 53% have a negative view of Trump.
Forty-three percent have a favorable view of Tim Walz, while 44% have a favorable view of JD Vance. Forty-three percent have a negative view of the Minnesota governor, while 49% have a negative view of the Ohio Senator.
Half of voters have a favorable view of their Senator Casey, while 45% have a favorable view of David McCormick. Forty-four percent have an unfavorable view of both the Senator and McCormick.
The economy is the top issue for 51% of likely voters in Pennsylvania, followed by threats to democracy (12%), immigration (8%), housing affordability (6%), healthcare (6%), and abortion access (5%).
On the issue of fracking, voters were asked which presidential candidate they trust more to handle the issue. Half (50%) trust Trump more, while 43% trust Harris more. Eight percent trust neither candidate on the issue.
A recent poll conducted in Emerson, Pennsylvania has shown that President Donald Trump is leading Democratic nominee Kamala Harris by a slim margin of 1%. The poll, which surveyed likely voters in the state, has sparked discussions about the potential outcome of the upcoming election.
The results of the poll have come as a surprise to many, as Pennsylvania is considered a crucial swing state in presidential elections. In 2016, Trump narrowly won the state by less than 1%, and it is expected to be a key battleground once again in 2020.
The poll results suggest that Trump’s messaging on issues such as the economy, law and order, and national security may be resonating with voters in Pennsylvania. Additionally, his campaign’s efforts to appeal to rural and working-class voters in the state appear to be paying off.
On the other hand, Harris has been focusing on issues such as healthcare, climate change, and racial justice in her campaign. While these issues are important to many voters, it seems that Trump’s message is currently winning over a larger portion of the electorate in Pennsylvania.
It is important to note that polls are not always accurate predictors of election outcomes, and there is still time for the race to shift in either candidate’s favor. However, the Emerson poll serves as a reminder that Pennsylvania will likely play a crucial role in determining the next president of the United States.
As the election draws closer, both campaigns will continue to focus their efforts on winning over voters in key swing states like Pennsylvania. The outcome of the race remains uncertain, but one thing is clear: every vote will count in this closely contested election.
